All US economic series are pulled from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, which aggregates over 840,000 time series from the BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Treasury, Census Bureau, and other primary sources. Every chart links back to its source series ID.

Daily series (Treasury yields, equities, oil, gold) refresh every weekday after market close. Monthly series (CPI, unemployment, payrolls) update on their official FRED release schedule, usually within 30 minutes of publication by the source agency. Weekly series (jobless claims, mortgage rates) update on Thursday/Friday mornings.

The composite score (0-100) is computed daily from seven independent recession signals. Each signal that is currently "tripped" (exceeding its historical threshold) subtracts proportionally. A score of 100 means no signals tripped; 0 means all signals tripped. The score then maps to a regime label: expansion (75+), caution (40-74), or recession (below 40).

• 10Y-2Y yield curve — inverted (below 0) since Estrella & Hardouvelis
• 10Y-3M yield curve — NY Fed's preferred recession probability input
• Sahm Rule — 3-month average unemployment up 0.50pp from 12-month low
• Initial claims trend — 15% above year-ago level
• High-yield credit spread — above 6.0% (junk bond stress)
• Unemployment rise — 0.5pp above 24-month low (NBER pattern)
• Leading Economic Indicators — 12-month change below -0.5

Headlines, the 60-Second Brief, Economic Weather, and section narratives are generated daily by OpenAI's models (gpt-4o-mini for most content, gpt-4o for the long-form brief). All numbers in the output are checked against the input data — the model is not allowed to invent figures. A banned-word list prevents speculative or dramatic language. If generation fails, the previous version is kept until the next refresh.

No proprietary indices. No black-box models. No advertising. No investment advice. No paywalls. Every threshold is published. Every calculation is reproducible. Every series links to FRED.